Since nothing important has happened today in the world of the Ottawa Senators (or really for weeks or months, depending on your definition of 'important'), I thought it might be fun to take a look at a fun bunch of statistics.
To compare our players and rate their performances, I often use the NHL Stats machine. It was only recently that I noticed an unusual category I'd not seen before under the 'Stats View': HITS - Players. It lead to a few fun numbers that I'd like to share with you.
We all know Spezza loves to give away the puck, dangle freakin' dangle style. I thought he might've been the worst in the League. While his 96 giveaways last season (can you believe that's still pretty close to only one per game?) were second to Thornton's 103, when you factor in the six fewer games Spezza played, he tops Thornton's giveaways per game rate, 1.263 to 1.256, narrowly earning the giveaway king crown. Our next 'best' player last season came in 31st with 66GvA, but since he's gone to the Big Apple, Redden shouldn't be a worry. What might be worrisome is that both Heatley and Alfie sneak into the top 50, with 60 apiece, making our top line not only the most feared by goalies, but possibly the most enticing one to opportunists.
A pair of handy stats that we can use to give us hope for the season come next: Blocked Shots and Hits. In the top 100 hitters, we have seven players. Phillips brings up the rear, coming in 76th with 126BkS, going on up through Ruutu, Smith, Volchenkov, Schubert, and Neil, and being led by Fisher at 7th, with 234. On average, teams have just two and a half players among the top 76 in the League; with nearly thrice that at 7, it might make other teams start to think twice next season.
Our outlook for blocked shots is quite bright as well. We have the second and third most productive shot blockers from last season in Volchenkov and Smith, and Phillips ranks in at 13th. Again, most teams would have averaged a single player in the top 30; we'll give both Auld and Gerber some help by having three in the top 15. Stranger though are the next entries on the team in the category: Meszaros, at 74th, Commodore at 82nd, and Redden at 86th. Two (or possibly three) of those will be gone next year, taking away 289BkS, over 3.5/game (although given Commodore's short tenure with the Sens, that loss will actually be slightly less). Thankfully, in comparison, our top three combined for 564BkS, not quite twice as much, but it is still a spot to watch out for, that will show in the shots we allow each game. For interest, Fisher is the next highest Senator on the list, clocking in at 128th in the League (5th overall though, among forwards).
That's about all that was interesting for today, in my world anyways. Here's hoping that I can soon wakeup to the Sens in Europe.
Showing posts with label stats. Show all posts
Showing posts with label stats. Show all posts
Tuesday, August 12, 2008
Monday, August 11, 2008
Defending our Defense
Without any news to bring to you today, I thought I'd take a look at the news we are all waiting for, that being the status of Meszaros for the upcoming season.
From the media to the blogosphere to forums, the strongest voice belongs to those who believe Meszaros is anything but indispensable to the team. His decline in production and performance since his sensational rookie year, his defensive lapses, there are countless criticisms for Andrej. I want to take a look at him, and see if a plausible, non-Meszaros-just-sucks explanation can be found.
In his rookie season, Meszaros was outstanding on the Ottawa Senators' blue line. If not for the likes of Ovechkin and Crosby, Meszaros would have stood a good chance of winning the Calder trophy as rookie of the year. In 82GP that season (he has never missed a game in any of his three NHL seasons), Mez went 10-29--39 for .476P/G, while going +34 with 61PIM.
Then the 'fallout' came. In his second season, his scoring dropped slightly to 7-28--35 for .427P/G, while he wound up a -15 with 102PIM, a much greater liability than the previous season. This past season, he stayed the same or improved, depending on how you see it, to 9-27--36 for .439P/G, finishing a +5 with 50PIM. While this seems to upset many fans, he was 24th, 25th, and 26th, in goals, assists, and points, respectively, among all NHL defensemen. Also, if we were so happy with .476P/G in 05-06, how could his following seasons of .427 and .439P/G be a drastically worse result?
That leaves the suspicion that his defensive play was the main disappointment. Sure enough, I've been frustrated countless times by terrible pinches, lackluster physical presence, and many other moments when he and Redden were on the ice. What changed to cause this?
In trying to defend Meszaros (and, somewhat as well, Redden), you have to look beyond the blatant numbers. In his rookie year, Meszaros was playing on one of the best Senators teams ever. The Defense consisted of Redden, Chara, Phillips, Volchenkov, Meszaros, Brian Pothier, and Schubert. In Chara, Meszaros had a fellow Slovak as his inspiration in Chara. He would have also been a good calming influence for a player of just 20 years of age with only 59 North-American games (in the WHL) under his belt. Having Chara, Phillips, and Volchenkov allowed Murray to spread his defense fairly evenly, pairing those shutdown, physical players with the better puckmovers in Redden, Meszaros, and Pothier (although Chara fits very well in both categories). In addition to this powerful blue line, the team had the surefire Hall-Of-Famer Hasek between the pipes for half the games, and a much more respectable Emery for the other games.
Flash forward a season, and the team changes drastically. The team loses Havlat (guaranteed, he only played in 18 games, notching 16 points), and also loses Smolinski and Arnason, who just one season earlier combined to contribute 30-63--93. The blueline loses Chara and Pothier, who contributed 21-57--78. Suddenly, with Preissing and Corvo, the blueline now has only two legitimate shutout defensemen, and in pairing them together, the other two offensive-minded pairings of Redden-Meszaros and Preissing-Corvo can't defend as effectively as the more balanced combinations of just one year prior. To top off the cake, Hasek is gone and it is Gerber and Emery between the posts.
This one year marked the biggest drop for Mez, and also for Redden, who in 05-06 had 65GP, 10-40--50 for .769P/G, and was +35 with 63PIM. In 06-07, he dropped to 64GP, 7-29--36 for .563P/G, and was +1 with 50PIM. This past season, in 80GP, he was 6-32--38 for .475P/G, ending a +11 with 60PIM. The year after the team lost so many quality players, Mez and Reds were shoved together. Forced to shoulder the physical load, Mez saw his PIM balloon from 61 to 102. Having both players together forced them to have to think about defense, while knowing offensive support was their primary goal, and their defensive lapses showed just how well that worked out for them.
Put it another way, and you can compare it to our forwards. When you spread the offense around, as it was done in 02-03 and in 05-06, everyone can focus better on their contributions. Last year, when Paddock leaned heavily on the top line of Heatley-Spezza-Alfredsson, who filled the net very well, the other lines weren't able to produce as well. Similarly, when the best defensemen in Volchenkov and Phillips were paired together, and able to shutdown almost any line in the league, the mostly offensive-minded pairings of Redden-Mez and Preissing-Corvo weren't able to attack or defend as well as they should have been.
I do believe that the increased pressure of having the team lose stars at forward, defense, and in goal, as well as losing the inspiration of fellow Slovak Chara and having to deal with a slumping Redden as partner are all very real reasons for Meszaros' slump. I certainly think that this season will see Meszaros improve, and Redden could have too, especially if our defensive pairings matched one shutdown player (Phillips, Volchenkov, Smith) with an offensive one (Redden, Meszaros, Lee, Shubert). Recall that we were beaten in the Stanley Cup Finals by a Ducks squad that had three top defensemen in Pronger, Beauchemin, and Niedermayer, and those three were all in separate pairings except for penalty killing and other critical situations.
So what to do? So many out there have argued that Meszaros is worth no more than the $2.75 million Vermette signed for. Wideman, who scored the same 36 points as Meszaros in one less game, signed a four-year deal for $3.785 million, and his only other NHL seasons saw him score a paltry 24 and 25 points. Bouwmeester actually only scored one more point than Mez last season while going -5, and he, also an RFA, signed a one-year, $4.8 million deal, and he has also been on a three year slump, seeing his points decrease from 46 to 42 and now 37.
This would be the trouble. While his point totals would hardly guarantee him a $3 million plus salary as a forward, they are very respectable for a defenseman. If we could lock him up long term, I could see him getting as much as $4 million easily, since I don't doubt that Murray is also expecting a rebound. Should he go short-term, as Vermette did, he will likely still cost between $3 to $3.5 million for a one or two year deal, with Mez hoping to improve to a much higher salary bracket by the end of the contract, just as Vermette is also likely hoping for.
In the end, I just hope that people, as much as they aren't happy with our last season, will give him another chance. It was the whole team that collapsed, along with the team concept in mixing always the best with the best, rather than aiming to have our top talent support and inspire others on the team. Here's hoping that Murray, Hartsburg, and our boys can band together for the new season, and as a team rise like a phoenix from the ashes of our past season.
From the media to the blogosphere to forums, the strongest voice belongs to those who believe Meszaros is anything but indispensable to the team. His decline in production and performance since his sensational rookie year, his defensive lapses, there are countless criticisms for Andrej. I want to take a look at him, and see if a plausible, non-Meszaros-just-sucks explanation can be found.
In his rookie season, Meszaros was outstanding on the Ottawa Senators' blue line. If not for the likes of Ovechkin and Crosby, Meszaros would have stood a good chance of winning the Calder trophy as rookie of the year. In 82GP that season (he has never missed a game in any of his three NHL seasons), Mez went 10-29--39 for .476P/G, while going +34 with 61PIM.
Then the 'fallout' came. In his second season, his scoring dropped slightly to 7-28--35 for .427P/G, while he wound up a -15 with 102PIM, a much greater liability than the previous season. This past season, he stayed the same or improved, depending on how you see it, to 9-27--36 for .439P/G, finishing a +5 with 50PIM. While this seems to upset many fans, he was 24th, 25th, and 26th, in goals, assists, and points, respectively, among all NHL defensemen. Also, if we were so happy with .476P/G in 05-06, how could his following seasons of .427 and .439P/G be a drastically worse result?
That leaves the suspicion that his defensive play was the main disappointment. Sure enough, I've been frustrated countless times by terrible pinches, lackluster physical presence, and many other moments when he and Redden were on the ice. What changed to cause this?
In trying to defend Meszaros (and, somewhat as well, Redden), you have to look beyond the blatant numbers. In his rookie year, Meszaros was playing on one of the best Senators teams ever. The Defense consisted of Redden, Chara, Phillips, Volchenkov, Meszaros, Brian Pothier, and Schubert. In Chara, Meszaros had a fellow Slovak as his inspiration in Chara. He would have also been a good calming influence for a player of just 20 years of age with only 59 North-American games (in the WHL) under his belt. Having Chara, Phillips, and Volchenkov allowed Murray to spread his defense fairly evenly, pairing those shutdown, physical players with the better puckmovers in Redden, Meszaros, and Pothier (although Chara fits very well in both categories). In addition to this powerful blue line, the team had the surefire Hall-Of-Famer Hasek between the pipes for half the games, and a much more respectable Emery for the other games.
Flash forward a season, and the team changes drastically. The team loses Havlat (guaranteed, he only played in 18 games, notching 16 points), and also loses Smolinski and Arnason, who just one season earlier combined to contribute 30-63--93. The blueline loses Chara and Pothier, who contributed 21-57--78. Suddenly, with Preissing and Corvo, the blueline now has only two legitimate shutout defensemen, and in pairing them together, the other two offensive-minded pairings of Redden-Meszaros and Preissing-Corvo can't defend as effectively as the more balanced combinations of just one year prior. To top off the cake, Hasek is gone and it is Gerber and Emery between the posts.
This one year marked the biggest drop for Mez, and also for Redden, who in 05-06 had 65GP, 10-40--50 for .769P/G, and was +35 with 63PIM. In 06-07, he dropped to 64GP, 7-29--36 for .563P/G, and was +1 with 50PIM. This past season, in 80GP, he was 6-32--38 for .475P/G, ending a +11 with 60PIM. The year after the team lost so many quality players, Mez and Reds were shoved together. Forced to shoulder the physical load, Mez saw his PIM balloon from 61 to 102. Having both players together forced them to have to think about defense, while knowing offensive support was their primary goal, and their defensive lapses showed just how well that worked out for them.
Put it another way, and you can compare it to our forwards. When you spread the offense around, as it was done in 02-03 and in 05-06, everyone can focus better on their contributions. Last year, when Paddock leaned heavily on the top line of Heatley-Spezza-Alfredsson, who filled the net very well, the other lines weren't able to produce as well. Similarly, when the best defensemen in Volchenkov and Phillips were paired together, and able to shutdown almost any line in the league, the mostly offensive-minded pairings of Redden-Mez and Preissing-Corvo weren't able to attack or defend as well as they should have been.
I do believe that the increased pressure of having the team lose stars at forward, defense, and in goal, as well as losing the inspiration of fellow Slovak Chara and having to deal with a slumping Redden as partner are all very real reasons for Meszaros' slump. I certainly think that this season will see Meszaros improve, and Redden could have too, especially if our defensive pairings matched one shutdown player (Phillips, Volchenkov, Smith) with an offensive one (Redden, Meszaros, Lee, Shubert). Recall that we were beaten in the Stanley Cup Finals by a Ducks squad that had three top defensemen in Pronger, Beauchemin, and Niedermayer, and those three were all in separate pairings except for penalty killing and other critical situations.
So what to do? So many out there have argued that Meszaros is worth no more than the $2.75 million Vermette signed for. Wideman, who scored the same 36 points as Meszaros in one less game, signed a four-year deal for $3.785 million, and his only other NHL seasons saw him score a paltry 24 and 25 points. Bouwmeester actually only scored one more point than Mez last season while going -5, and he, also an RFA, signed a one-year, $4.8 million deal, and he has also been on a three year slump, seeing his points decrease from 46 to 42 and now 37.
This would be the trouble. While his point totals would hardly guarantee him a $3 million plus salary as a forward, they are very respectable for a defenseman. If we could lock him up long term, I could see him getting as much as $4 million easily, since I don't doubt that Murray is also expecting a rebound. Should he go short-term, as Vermette did, he will likely still cost between $3 to $3.5 million for a one or two year deal, with Mez hoping to improve to a much higher salary bracket by the end of the contract, just as Vermette is also likely hoping for.
In the end, I just hope that people, as much as they aren't happy with our last season, will give him another chance. It was the whole team that collapsed, along with the team concept in mixing always the best with the best, rather than aiming to have our top talent support and inspire others on the team. Here's hoping that Murray, Hartsburg, and our boys can band together for the new season, and as a team rise like a phoenix from the ashes of our past season.
Sunday, August 10, 2008
Sunday Pestilism
Being August, there's a dearth of news going on that we all expect. It does mean that most interesting stories will come not from fact, but speculation, which is what I saw today. Spector posted a story by the Boston Globe's Fluto Shinzawa, a respected writer who covers the Bruins.
Hidden amongst all the Bruin-speak was a little side note on how this is a contract year for Chris Neil, and his skill in "thumping, skating, shooting" is a hard to find mix that is key in many of today's teams. There have been three names worth comparing in the Sens' lineup when touching on the subject of thumpings: Neil, Bass, and newly-acquired Ruutu. All are measured primarily on their ability to cause trouble for everyone not in a Sens jersey.
The question is, is Neil worth not only a new contract, but a new one for Shinzawa's suggested $2.2 million, double his current cap hit? I'm not so sure. We've all seen good pesting and fighting from all three boys, with Bass giving us the least to look at so far at the NHL level. In 21GP this season, Bass scored 2-2--4 for .200P/G, while going -1 with 19PIM. Compare this with Ruutu, 71GP, 6-10--16, .225P/G, +3 with 138PIM, and Neil, 68GP, 6-14--20, .294P/G, -3 with 199PIM.
There are many even points with all three. All are either 6'0 or 6'1, weighing 200-214lbs, so physically they've got the same heft to throw around (without knowing who might be carrying the muscle and who the beer). They also all stay roughly close to neutral +/-. The two main statistical differences are points and PIM.
I'd be tempted to say Bass is the best, registering just under a PIM per game, but he only played a quarter of the season, with the reduced expectations of being a rookie and of having Neil on your side. Ruutu had Hall and Laraques to work with, but still managed to get into 2PIM/game worth of trouble. Neil, carrying the brunt of the Sens' load, tops out at 2.5PIM/game. How do you compare them though? I don't think it's fair to blast or put a halo over Bass yet for anything, being only 21 with same in games of NHL experience. To look at Ruutu and Neil, we could say Neil's worse since he takes more PIM/game, but then again Ruutu's only slightly better, and he had Laraques and Hall on his team, while Neil had seldom-seen Bass and rarely-seen Grats.
To compare them in point production, Neil is the clear winner. Bass is still unproven, and Ruutu's topped out at 17Pts and prior to last season .207P/G throughout his entire career. But think again about Neil. While he's the best this season at .294P/G, he was .341P/G in 06-07, and .418P/G after the lockout. Before the lockout, he topped out at 17Pts and .236P/G in three seasons. Quite a jump, eh? But two years ago, had it not been for Hasek's Olympic injury and Emery's inexperience, we had one of the better Sens' squads in a while, while last year we had a team good enough to rank second in the East in points and make it all the way to the Cup Final. I'd argue that it's been our team, more than Neil, that's been responsible for his better numbers, and hence as the team's slid from the post-lockout to Cup Final to this season, so has he.
He has slid in more than that though. I think we've all yelled at Neil more than once this season for taking some of the dumbest penalties, like falling on top of someone, then punching or cross-checking them in the face while getting up. When we wanted fight from Neil, we had freakin' Spezza having to drop the gloves. He's beginning to let us down.
Barring some kind of massive comeback, I think this might well be Neil's last season with the Sens. As far as energy lines go, we've got all three of these boys this year, and players like Donovan, McAmmond, and forward-playing Schubert. Nobody needs two lines of energy. Considering that Bass has the youth, and Ruutu's locked in for three years starting this season, while being an always respected member of each team he's played for, I think it might well be time to say our farewells.
Of course, this is just humble old me, taking respected speculation and adding my not-so-proven speculation on top of it, since it's such a slow day. Neil is loved by the fans, and he could still pull himself around enough to merit a new deal. Otherwise, he might be as good as gone, or as good as tradebait. We'll be able to see as soon as the season starts, which can't come soon enough!
Hidden amongst all the Bruin-speak was a little side note on how this is a contract year for Chris Neil, and his skill in "thumping, skating, shooting" is a hard to find mix that is key in many of today's teams. There have been three names worth comparing in the Sens' lineup when touching on the subject of thumpings: Neil, Bass, and newly-acquired Ruutu. All are measured primarily on their ability to cause trouble for everyone not in a Sens jersey.
The question is, is Neil worth not only a new contract, but a new one for Shinzawa's suggested $2.2 million, double his current cap hit? I'm not so sure. We've all seen good pesting and fighting from all three boys, with Bass giving us the least to look at so far at the NHL level. In 21GP this season, Bass scored 2-2--4 for .200P/G, while going -1 with 19PIM. Compare this with Ruutu, 71GP, 6-10--16, .225P/G, +3 with 138PIM, and Neil, 68GP, 6-14--20, .294P/G, -3 with 199PIM.
There are many even points with all three. All are either 6'0 or 6'1, weighing 200-214lbs, so physically they've got the same heft to throw around (without knowing who might be carrying the muscle and who the beer). They also all stay roughly close to neutral +/-. The two main statistical differences are points and PIM.
I'd be tempted to say Bass is the best, registering just under a PIM per game, but he only played a quarter of the season, with the reduced expectations of being a rookie and of having Neil on your side. Ruutu had Hall and Laraques to work with, but still managed to get into 2PIM/game worth of trouble. Neil, carrying the brunt of the Sens' load, tops out at 2.5PIM/game. How do you compare them though? I don't think it's fair to blast or put a halo over Bass yet for anything, being only 21 with same in games of NHL experience. To look at Ruutu and Neil, we could say Neil's worse since he takes more PIM/game, but then again Ruutu's only slightly better, and he had Laraques and Hall on his team, while Neil had seldom-seen Bass and rarely-seen Grats.
To compare them in point production, Neil is the clear winner. Bass is still unproven, and Ruutu's topped out at 17Pts and prior to last season .207P/G throughout his entire career. But think again about Neil. While he's the best this season at .294P/G, he was .341P/G in 06-07, and .418P/G after the lockout. Before the lockout, he topped out at 17Pts and .236P/G in three seasons. Quite a jump, eh? But two years ago, had it not been for Hasek's Olympic injury and Emery's inexperience, we had one of the better Sens' squads in a while, while last year we had a team good enough to rank second in the East in points and make it all the way to the Cup Final. I'd argue that it's been our team, more than Neil, that's been responsible for his better numbers, and hence as the team's slid from the post-lockout to Cup Final to this season, so has he.
He has slid in more than that though. I think we've all yelled at Neil more than once this season for taking some of the dumbest penalties, like falling on top of someone, then punching or cross-checking them in the face while getting up. When we wanted fight from Neil, we had freakin' Spezza having to drop the gloves. He's beginning to let us down.
Barring some kind of massive comeback, I think this might well be Neil's last season with the Sens. As far as energy lines go, we've got all three of these boys this year, and players like Donovan, McAmmond, and forward-playing Schubert. Nobody needs two lines of energy. Considering that Bass has the youth, and Ruutu's locked in for three years starting this season, while being an always respected member of each team he's played for, I think it might well be time to say our farewells.
Of course, this is just humble old me, taking respected speculation and adding my not-so-proven speculation on top of it, since it's such a slow day. Neil is loved by the fans, and he could still pull himself around enough to merit a new deal. Otherwise, he might be as good as gone, or as good as tradebait. We'll be able to see as soon as the season starts, which can't come soon enough!
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