Defending our Defense

Without any news to bring to you today, I thought I'd take a look at the news we are all waiting for, that being the status of Meszaros for the upcoming season.

From the media to the blogosphere to forums, the strongest voice belongs to those who believe Meszaros is anything but indispensable to the team. His decline in production and performance since his sensational rookie year, his defensive lapses, there are countless criticisms for Andrej. I want to take a look at him, and see if a plausible, non-Meszaros-just-sucks explanation can be found.

In his rookie season, Meszaros was outstanding on the Ottawa Senators' blue line. If not for the likes of Ovechkin and Crosby, Meszaros would have stood a good chance of winning the Calder trophy as rookie of the year. In 82GP that season (he has never missed a game in any of his three NHL seasons), Mez went 10-29--39 for .476P/G, while going +34 with 61PIM.

Then the 'fallout' came. In his second season, his scoring dropped slightly to 7-28--35 for .427P/G, while he wound up a -15 with 102PIM, a much greater liability than the previous season. This past season, he stayed the same or improved, depending on how you see it, to 9-27--36 for .439P/G, finishing a +5 with 50PIM. While this seems to upset many fans, he was 24th, 25th, and 26th, in goals, assists, and points, respectively, among all NHL defensemen. Also, if we were so happy with .476P/G in 05-06, how could his following seasons of .427 and .439P/G be a drastically worse result?

That leaves the suspicion that his defensive play was the main disappointment. Sure enough, I've been frustrated countless times by terrible pinches, lackluster physical presence, and many other moments when he and Redden were on the ice. What changed to cause this?

In trying to defend Meszaros (and, somewhat as well, Redden), you have to look beyond the blatant numbers. In his rookie year, Meszaros was playing on one of the best Senators teams ever. The Defense consisted of Redden, Chara, Phillips, Volchenkov, Meszaros, Brian Pothier, and Schubert. In Chara, Meszaros had a fellow Slovak as his inspiration in Chara. He would have also been a good calming influence for a player of just 20 years of age with only 59 North-American games (in the WHL) under his belt. Having Chara, Phillips, and Volchenkov allowed Murray to spread his defense fairly evenly, pairing those shutdown, physical players with the better puckmovers in Redden, Meszaros, and Pothier (although Chara fits very well in both categories). In addition to this powerful blue line, the team had the surefire Hall-Of-Famer Hasek between the pipes for half the games, and a much more respectable Emery for the other games.

Flash forward a season, and the team changes drastically. The team loses Havlat (guaranteed, he only played in 18 games, notching 16 points), and also loses Smolinski and Arnason, who just one season earlier combined to contribute 30-63--93. The blueline loses Chara and Pothier, who contributed 21-57--78. Suddenly, with Preissing and Corvo, the blueline now has only two legitimate shutout defensemen, and in pairing them together, the other two offensive-minded pairings of Redden-Meszaros and Preissing-Corvo can't defend as effectively as the more balanced combinations of just one year prior. To top off the cake, Hasek is gone and it is Gerber and Emery between the posts.

This one year marked the biggest drop for Mez, and also for Redden, who in 05-06 had 65GP, 10-40--50 for .769P/G, and was +35 with 63PIM. In 06-07, he dropped to 64GP, 7-29--36 for .563P/G, and was +1 with 50PIM. This past season, in 80GP, he was 6-32--38 for .475P/G, ending a +11 with 60PIM. The year after the team lost so many quality players, Mez and Reds were shoved together. Forced to shoulder the physical load, Mez saw his PIM balloon from 61 to 102. Having both players together forced them to have to think about defense, while knowing offensive support was their primary goal, and their defensive lapses showed just how well that worked out for them.

Put it another way, and you can compare it to our forwards. When you spread the offense around, as it was done in 02-03 and in 05-06, everyone can focus better on their contributions. Last year, when Paddock leaned heavily on the top line of Heatley-Spezza-Alfredsson, who filled the net very well, the other lines weren't able to produce as well. Similarly, when the best defensemen in Volchenkov and Phillips were paired together, and able to shutdown almost any line in the league, the mostly offensive-minded pairings of Redden-Mez and Preissing-Corvo weren't able to attack or defend as well as they should have been.

I do believe that the increased pressure of having the team lose stars at forward, defense, and in goal, as well as losing the inspiration of fellow Slovak Chara and having to deal with a slumping Redden as partner are all very real reasons for Meszaros' slump. I certainly think that this season will see Meszaros improve, and Redden could have too, especially if our defensive pairings matched one shutdown player (Phillips, Volchenkov, Smith) with an offensive one (Redden, Meszaros, Lee, Shubert). Recall that we were beaten in the Stanley Cup Finals by a Ducks squad that had three top defensemen in Pronger, Beauchemin, and Niedermayer, and those three were all in separate pairings except for penalty killing and other critical situations.

So what to do? So many out there have argued that Meszaros is worth no more than the $2.75 million Vermette signed for. Wideman, who scored the same 36 points as Meszaros in one less game, signed a four-year deal for $3.785 million, and his only other NHL seasons saw him score a paltry 24 and 25 points. Bouwmeester actually only scored one more point than Mez last season while going -5, and he, also an RFA, signed a one-year, $4.8 million deal, and he has also been on a three year slump, seeing his points decrease from 46 to 42 and now 37.

This would be the trouble. While his point totals would hardly guarantee him a $3 million plus salary as a forward, they are very respectable for a defenseman. If we could lock him up long term, I could see him getting as much as $4 million easily, since I don't doubt that Murray is also expecting a rebound. Should he go short-term, as Vermette did, he will likely still cost between $3 to $3.5 million for a one or two year deal, with Mez hoping to improve to a much higher salary bracket by the end of the contract, just as Vermette is also likely hoping for.

In the end, I just hope that people, as much as they aren't happy with our last season, will give him another chance. It was the whole team that collapsed, along with the team concept in mixing always the best with the best, rather than aiming to have our top talent support and inspire others on the team. Here's hoping that Murray, Hartsburg, and our boys can band together for the new season, and as a team rise like a phoenix from the ashes of our past season.