Sunday Pestilism

Being August, there's a dearth of news going on that we all expect. It does mean that most interesting stories will come not from fact, but speculation, which is what I saw today. Spector posted a story by the Boston Globe's Fluto Shinzawa, a respected writer who covers the Bruins.

Hidden amongst all the Bruin-speak was a little side note on how this is a contract year for Chris Neil, and his skill in "thumping, skating, shooting" is a hard to find mix that is key in many of today's teams. There have been three names worth comparing in the Sens' lineup when touching on the subject of thumpings: Neil, Bass, and newly-acquired Ruutu. All are measured primarily on their ability to cause trouble for everyone not in a Sens jersey.

The question is, is Neil worth not only a new contract, but a new one for Shinzawa's suggested $2.2 million, double his current cap hit? I'm not so sure. We've all seen good pesting and fighting from all three boys, with Bass giving us the least to look at so far at the NHL level. In 21GP this season, Bass scored 2-2--4 for .200P/G, while going -1 with 19PIM. Compare this with Ruutu, 71GP, 6-10--16, .225P/G, +3 with 138PIM, and Neil, 68GP, 6-14--20, .294P/G, -3 with 199PIM.

There are many even points with all three. All are either 6'0 or 6'1, weighing 200-214lbs, so physically they've got the same heft to throw around (without knowing who might be carrying the muscle and who the beer). They also all stay roughly close to neutral +/-. The two main statistical differences are points and PIM.

I'd be tempted to say Bass is the best, registering just under a PIM per game, but he only played a quarter of the season, with the reduced expectations of being a rookie and of having Neil on your side. Ruutu had Hall and Laraques to work with, but still managed to get into 2PIM/game worth of trouble. Neil, carrying the brunt of the Sens' load, tops out at 2.5PIM/game. How do you compare them though? I don't think it's fair to blast or put a halo over Bass yet for anything, being only 21 with same in games of NHL experience. To look at Ruutu and Neil, we could say Neil's worse since he takes more PIM/game, but then again Ruutu's only slightly better, and he had Laraques and Hall on his team, while Neil had seldom-seen Bass and rarely-seen Grats.

To compare them in point production, Neil is the clear winner. Bass is still unproven, and Ruutu's topped out at 17Pts and prior to last season .207P/G throughout his entire career. But think again about Neil. While he's the best this season at .294P/G, he was .341P/G in 06-07, and .418P/G after the lockout. Before the lockout, he topped out at 17Pts and .236P/G in three seasons. Quite a jump, eh? But two years ago, had it not been for Hasek's Olympic injury and Emery's inexperience, we had one of the better Sens' squads in a while, while last year we had a team good enough to rank second in the East in points and make it all the way to the Cup Final. I'd argue that it's been our team, more than Neil, that's been responsible for his better numbers, and hence as the team's slid from the post-lockout to Cup Final to this season, so has he.

He has slid in more than that though. I think we've all yelled at Neil more than once this season for taking some of the dumbest penalties, like falling on top of someone, then punching or cross-checking them in the face while getting up. When we wanted fight from Neil, we had freakin' Spezza having to drop the gloves. He's beginning to let us down.

Barring some kind of massive comeback, I think this might well be Neil's last season with the Sens. As far as energy lines go, we've got all three of these boys this year, and players like Donovan, McAmmond, and forward-playing Schubert. Nobody needs two lines of energy. Considering that Bass has the youth, and Ruutu's locked in for three years starting this season, while being an always respected member of each team he's played for, I think it might well be time to say our farewells.

Of course, this is just humble old me, taking respected speculation and adding my not-so-proven speculation on top of it, since it's such a slow day. Neil is loved by the fans, and he could still pull himself around enough to merit a new deal. Otherwise, he might be as good as gone, or as good as tradebait. We'll be able to see as soon as the season starts, which can't come soon enough!