Senators Off Season Needs: Defense

I can't say it's surprising that almost a full two weeks into free agency and in the buzz and big-signings of the new NHL, the Sens have accounted for precisely.... 0% of total action. To break it down, that's 0 signings, 0 trades, and 0 dollars of change. Unless of course you count losing Mike Comrie to the depleted Islanders. But Comrie's probably not worth 3.375 for a mere 45 points (unless he can play a full season and keep pacing up closer to 60). And of course there's Tom Preissing returning home to sunny Cali to play with the Kings, and the price for Preissing was likely also too high, but that's the way it goes in the new NHL.

While no new deals have come for the sens beyond signing a few of their prospects, there's plenty that the fans have been clamoring for Murray to do to liven up the shortened off-season. Maybe no big moves will happen, or maybe it's just taking time to find the right mix, taking into account the fact that we've had 2 months less time to really prepare for free agency compared to the Leafs, Flyers, Avalanche and 11 other teams in the league, and that Murray certainly had no time or thought to what he wanted to do as he coached our Sens further than anyone has in recent history, and only just recently being appointed GM. Right now we'll see how the blue line is looking, and in a while we'll move on to check out our forwards and our men in the crease.

The only change thus far on our defense has been, as mentioned, the loss of Tom Preissing. There has been some concern over the loss of his numbers, but the Sens should be fine. While Preissing led our defense in points with 38, Mezaros, 35, Redden, 36, and Corvo, 37, have the ability to pick up the slack. Of our top 6 defensemen last season, only Volchenkov didn't score 7 or 8 goals. While he did have one of our top +/-, we will likely either obtain a free agent defenseman to slot into the lineup, although no names stand out to me at this time as being candidates for Murray to pursue, and he would likely invest the extra cap in replacing Comrie or saving for the trade deadline, or perhaps bring up Brian Lee or Matt Carkner, as both have matured and developped well.

Most people's concern, however, is that we are very close to the cap. Just over 9 million away seems like a lot, until you realize that we need to sign two more forwards, another defenseman, and a second goalie. That averages out to just over two million apiece. With Schubert, Kelly, and Emery headed to arbitration, and Emery unlikely to be as affordable as that 2 million average, it's a hard crunch to put our team together, let alone to give us some room to breathe and potentially make some mid-season moves, like how we brought in Comrie during our injury days last season to help.

So the common thought is that we need to shift some payrolls, and on the blue line there's only one name that comes up: Redden. As our assistant captain, Wade's put up some powerful numbers. He had seasons as one of the best tape-to-tape passers and powerplay quarterbacks, but he has slid of late. Corvo and Preissing took up the first powerplay unit, while Phillips and Volchenkov were our number 1 defensive pairing. He's grown sluggish and seems to have lost his passion for the game, despite the love most Sens fans still give him. His 6.5 million next year is the biggest of any Sen, and it might be time for him to go. But all does not bode well.

Redden's no-trade clause makes it unlikely that he would want to move from his longtime home in Ottawa, where he also has a chance next year to capture the Cup, especially not to a less hockey-passionate franchise, as befits most teams that have the cap space for him. The lone chance we really stood of finding a team in need of defensive bolstering, with the same hockey passion as us, and for whom he would waive his no-trade clause is now gone. Edmonton, much closer to Lloydminster, SK, than Ottawa, Redden's hometown, has been looking for good blue-liners ever since they traded Pronger. They also had the cap space. Now they've traded for Joni Pitkanen and signed Sheldon Souray, and Redden no longer seems to be wanted or needed, and we look to be stuck with him, for better or for worse.

There are still a few teams that might want Redden though. Tampa has only signed four defensemen, and has been looking to improve on the 3.16 GAA they posted last season, but they only have 10 million left to play with. Chicago would look to be a bit more needy with the same four on defense, but only two earning over 1 million (at 1.4 apiece), and with the team having almost 12 million to play with. While they have six D men signed and are working on Paul Martin, with 13 million left and their annual tradition of hemorrhaging their top blue liners still intact, New Jersey might have some faint interest, but most of that cap will likely be used to keep Zach Parise put. Washington and Atlanta, with roughly 10 and 20 million left to spend respectively, and not-so-impressive defensive units, represent another route which we could follow. Lastly, the rebuilding Islanders have the highest chance of being an avenue, as they have a full front lineup, 16 million to spare, and need themselves a bona fide lead defenseman. However, despite all these teams that might shop for Redden, in the end that no-trade clause will likely be the nail in the coffin on any plans to move him.

Making the Most of NHL Salary Cap Space

Less than two days remain until free agency begins, and the bidding wars and head-to-head games of salary cap chicken look to feature prominently this year. As teams slowly adjust to the salary-cap structure, watch out for those suspicious deals. While some may be the perfect set-up, others could spell trouble for the entire league.

Rick DiPietro began this past season by signing only the second longest NHL contract in history, a blockbuster 15-year, 67.5 million dollar deal that will see him raking in 4.5 million annually. Some may balk at the huge investment, but when a team sees true value, long contracts are not as harsh as they may seem. Nobody would laugh at the 21-year deal Gretzky signed with the Oilers, but nobody would try to compare the two either.

The fact remains that DiPietro is a solid investment in the crease, one likely only to get better with time. While nobody would want to pay 4.5 million for a 40-year old goaltender well past his prime, DiPietro won't be that man, and won't disappoint the Islanders.

Look at the flip side now. After the first couple cap years, DiPietro's contract clocked in at just over 10% of the Islanders cap. This year the cap is expected to rise to at least 48 million, with some wild estimates predicting up to 52 million could be possible. This would lower his chunk to just over or under 9%. With Gary Bettman intent on increasing the appeal of the NHL and always mindful of the possibility of expansion - possibly even into areas hungry to accept a team such as Winnipeg and Hamilton - the cap could rise higher and higher in years to come.

Do the math. If the cap reached even 60 million, which is quite possible, the Islanders could have sunk their netminding share of their cap to only 7.5%. In this season's terms, that would account for only 3.3 million, and by the time the cap reaches 60 million, 3.3 million likely won't buy you the Backstroms, Vokouns, Millers, and Lundqvists of the league anymore, since each new contract signed sets a new benchmark for the rest. By then, the 7.5 million Roberto Luongo will receive at the end of his contract won't seem like much, just as the 5.2 million New Jersey hopes to be handing out to Martin Brodeur in 11/12 will seem rather paltry by then.

Look closely, and while the 87.5 million over 10-years for Yashin bares a harsh rash on the mind, you will find many other long-term investments with big potential to keep star players locked up for an ever-shrinking piece of the salary cap pie. Pavel Datsyuk, Daniel Alfredsson, Martin St. Louis: they could all still be putting up great numbers and pushing their teams to great heights through the ends of their contracts, and by then become great bargain deals that leave room for the free agent signings and trade deadline deals that can make a Stanley Cup Champion.

Good things come to those who wait. We shall wait and see.

Dull Draft Paves Way for Exciting Free Agency

Despite all the teams with reams of first round picks (Edmonton, St Louis), it was a pretty dull draft weekend this year for fans hoping for the excitement felt at the big impact trade deadline this year. Only modest pick packages exchanged hands to bring steady goaltending to Florida from Nashville in the form of Tomas Vokoun, and creating a one-two starter battle in Toronto as Vesa Toskala joins hockey's most venerable franchise, along with forward Mark Bell, from San Jose. The only other trades involved teams looking to move up in the draft, or to gain a better foothold in the 2008 draft, which looks to be more heavily loaded than this venture.

All of this leads us into an exciting free agency. While I will continue to watch for deal-making prior to the July 1st deadline, and hope to see many big plays immediately prior to or following Hockey Country's birthday, it is not what I expect to see. There are many teams with plenty of cap space to land big-impact forwards, solid defensemen, or a top-notch netminder, look for a slower pace in July. Teams will be patient, weighing the best options for their team. Some will look to set a new salary bar in signing a marquee free agent. Some teams will play it more sneakily, attempting to outbid other teams for their RFAs, a very tempting move to juice up a roster with players from a cap-tight team. Other teams will keep trying to craft the perfect trades that didn't happen over the draft weekend, with many teams looking to offload players to free up cap space.

Regardless if your team comes out a winner or a gutted wreck heading into the new season, the shocks and tumbles of this year's free agency will provide the perfect punctuation to the off-season.